
For my tech predictions of 2012 I’ve rounded up the pretty certain, the not so certain and my shot in dark to give you an idea of what to expect in the next 12 months. So in no particular order;
Microsoft Windows 8

Unless Microsoft fumbles it, then 2012 will see the arrival of Windows 8. The public beta is set to ship in the next 1-2 months and its set to shake up the operating system world with an entirely new user interface. Based on the ‘Metro UI’ it will take a ‘tiles’ approach and put ‘apps’ at front and centre.
The pre-Beta of Windows 8 is looking very good; Windows Phone 7 (of which Windows 8 draws heavy influence) gets generally great reviews, so the new release from Microsoft is looking good.
Almost certainty
Windows 8 will be here by the end of the summer.
Probably Certain
Microsoft will create a combined tablet and desktop operating system.
A Shot in the Dark
Microsoft will take at least the #2 spot (off Android) for tablets by the end of the year.
Apple Products
With no (major) new iPhone in 2011, Apple fans may storm Cupertino if an iPhone 5 doesn’t emerge in 2012.
The iPad 3 will almost certainly beat it to stores though and is widely expected in Q1 2012. The only major updates will be a faster processor, a better screen, and probably a better camera.
The iPhone 5 is much more elusive, but it’s probably going to have a bigger screen, and share the new processor of the iPad 3.
There are massive rumours abound about a TV from Apple, but with no firm reports, I suspect this is more wishful thinking from fanbois. Almost certainly though Apple TV (the set-top box) will get a refresh
Almost certainty
iPad 3 will be here before Q2 (but won’t be widely available until Q3). The iPhone 5 will be here in June
Probably Certain
The iPad 3 will look pretty much the same with just a better screen, the iPhone 5 will look quite different with a bigger screen.
A Shot in the Dark
The rumours of an Apple Television in 2012 will prove unfounded
Android
Google’s platform is both flying (in the case of phones) and struggling (in the case of tablets). The trouble they have is that it’s just not an easy system to pick up and use and I don’t see this changing in 2012. As such the Google will struggle to make headway into tablet space.
The main exception here is Amazon, they have taken the Android system and redesigned the interface, it’s easy to use, exceptionally cheap, and content (video, music and books) are central to it. In just 2 months it has shot to the #2 spot in the tablet space and Amazon have more devices planned for 2012.
On the phone side unless Google’s answer to Siri is anything special, then nothing exciting will happen (beyond the continued dominance as the #1 smartphone platform). Unless of course you’re a lawyer, in which case the mountain of trade disputes between Apple, HTC, Samsung et al will continue.
Almost Certain
Amazon tablets will dominate the Android tablet space in 2012. Apple will continue chasing Samsung, HTC et al in court.
Probably Certain
Google will push tablet hardware, they’ll take market share from Apple, but Amazon will be the main player. Nothing too exciting will happen in the Android Phone side (unless Apple get their dream of killing it)
A Shot in the Dark
Samsung will sell more Windows tablets in 2012 than Android.
RIM / Blackberry
This week Blackberry announced that it would have no new products in the first half of 2012. Its total share price fell under its asset value and its haemorrhaging market share (and probably users).
It is fair to say that 2011 has not been RIM’s year.
In April this year I said they had less than 2 years left as an (independent) company, and there is nothing on the horizon that looks to change that. The only thing that’s keeping them alive at the moment is cheap contracts and BBM.
Almost Certain
RIM will continue to lose value and market share throughout 2012, probably releasing some new products in Q3/Q4.
Probably Certain
There will be at least one company showing interest in purchasing them before the year is out. It’s unlikely that their co-CEOs will last the year.
A Shot in the Dark
Microsoft will make an offer for them.
Cloud Technology
It’s been the buzz word of tech for over a year now, greeted with equal scepticism and enthusiasm, there is no doubt the use of the internet beyond simply the www is growing and changing the technology landscape.
The Tech City, here in Shoreditch, has seen an astonishing number of new businesses setup, mainly around something based in the cloud. While the vast majority will struggle to be heard in the crowd the sheer volume of new innovation will drive forward big changes in Cloud Tech in 2012.
Almost Certain
SAAS (software as a service), will become commonplace for nearly every small business. Everyone will keep data, finances, email, photos, music, or just backups in some form or another. By the end of 2012 it will be difficult to find a business that isn’t using the cloud somewhere.
Probably Certain
Music and Video will be predominantly ‘streamed’ within the UK by the end of 2012. The services will be on-demand and a combination of subscription based and pay-per-view. Think Spotify, BBC iPlayer and LoveFilm, rather than HMV.
A Shot in the Dark
Our hard drives will start to empty as they make it more difficult to access content on our mobile devices (tablets and phones). People purchasing technology Q4 of 2012 will store data independently of their home computers and the ‘hard drive’ will start to feel old tech.
Digital Media
Facebook this year has overtaken Google as the predominant website both here in the UK and the US. Social Media overtook porn as the #1 activity taking place online.
It’s now often quicker to engage with a business on Twitter than through their website, email or telephone. This week saw a Saudi Price reportedly pay $300m for 3% of Twitter, and Facebook is estimated to float next year for anything up to $100bn.
The world is in Social Media fever, and 2012 is unlikely going to be any different.
Almost Certain
Facebook will float at anything up to $100bn, doubling Goldman Sachs investment, quadrupling Microsoft’s, putting Mark Zukerberg’s worth at anything up to $20bn, and making 1000 millionaires at the company.
Probably Certain
Facebook and Twitter will struggle to find a revenue model anywhere near as good as Google’s. AdWords will continue to be the ‘golden child’ of digital marketing revenue.
A Shot in the Dark
Web search will decline in the Western World by the end of 2012 as mobile devices and predominantly apps provide an increasing portion of data requests. Increasingly it won’t just be information on restaurants and train times that are delivered through apps, but information on products and services. Looking for a plumber or a TV; you increasingly won’t Google it but search within an app on your device or computer.
PC Hardware
Other than getting faster, slimmer, (and in some cases) nicer looking, nothing revolutionary has happened to PC hardware in pretty much a decade.
2012 will be slightly different, with the advent of Windows 8 there will be a new form of processor for desktops that will allow thinner and more iPad like, but, fully functional computers. Already a host of manufacturers have committed to making Windows Tablets; lots will have dockable keyboards like the Transformer Prime. This should catapult Windows to at least the 2nd biggest tablet OS by the end of 2012.
On the laptop side, Intel’s ‘Ultrabook’ range will spread, we’ll see larger models, 14” screens, and general sleekness.
Almost Certain
Windows Tablets will be aplenty by late summer, offering the new Windows 8 experience and fully functional Microsoft Office.
Probably Certain
The ‘new form’ processors (Arm chips) will not run full Windows, and will be a halfway house between the tablets around at the moment and fully functional computer.
A Shot in the Dark
Windows Tablet sales will outsell Android Tablet sales in Q4 2012